ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
Slim Hopes

By Richard Barnes, South Africa
Atlas F1 Magazine Writer



There are two modern traditions that have become entrenched at the San Marino Grand Prix weekend each year. The first is that the race itself will almost play second fiddle to the inevitable Ayrton Senna tributes, and the second is that Michael Schumacher will win the GP. For obvious reasons, Imola is an emotional place for Formula One, and for Michael Schumacher in particular. As the winner of the 1994 San Marino GP during which Senna suffered his fatal accident, Schumacher seems to place special emphasis on winning this race.

The German has achieved just that in four of his last five San Marino starts, with the 2001 retirement as the only flaw in his 21st Century record. And in all but one of those victories (the Ferrari redwash in 2002), Schumacher has run in second place for the first phase of the race, only to gain the lead and eventual victory during the pitstops.

It is the simplest and most direct tactical approach, but it always works to ensure victory for the German. With Imola being easy on tyres, he stays out for a crucial few laps longer than his main race rival, and uses the clear track and lighter fuel load to turn in a succession of hotlaps while the previous leader struggles under conditions of traffic and heavier fuel load. The difference in laptimes is invariably enough to secure track position for Schumacher following his later stop.

In 2000, Schumacher ran a second stint four laps longer than McLaren's Mika Hakkinen, building up enough of a lead to pit and regain the circuit without being troubled by the Finn. Last year, it was brother Ralf in his Williams who led the race for the first third, while Michael once again ran a longer stint (this time by just two laps) to gain the lead after the first round of stops.

From the moment BAR's Jenson Button gained his unlikely maiden pole position on Saturday afternoon, it was obvious that Schumacher would once again apply the same tactic successfully. It's not that the young Briton's qualifying or race performances should be disparaged, for both were excellent efforts. But on this circuit and in this Ferrari car, it was always going to take more than Button and the BAR could deliver to unseat Schumacher. Just gaining the pole and leading for the first stint was as much as the BAR outfit could have hoped for.

As in 2003, Schumacher needed just two laps more of starting fuel than his race rival to get the clear track he sought and effectively seal the win. Button's only hope would have been for Montoya to sneak in front of Schumacher at the start, delaying him and allowing Button to build up a cushion to see him through the crucial first stop. To his credit, Montoya gave it his best effort, putting his car onto the grass as Schumacher calmly (and legally) squeezed the Colombian off the racing line. It was the only opportunity Montoya was allowed, and once the Ferrari's Bridgestone tyres had reached peak operating conditions, San Marino 2004 quickly became a two-horse race.

That was the major surprise of Imola. Not that BAR have improved to the point where they can consistently challenge for poles and podiums (for their new-found pace was evident in pre-season testing), but that they should so quickly have become the 'best of the rest' behind Ferrari. Imola is arguably one of Williams and Ralf Schumacher's favourite circuits, yet Button was never troubled by either Williams car on Saturday or Sunday. The achievement is all the more impressive because BAR have less Michelin experience than Williams, Renault or McLaren.

The logical conclusion, and one that must surely be gratifying to Button and his followers, is that Sunday's two-horse race reflected the merits of the drivers more than the cars. Neither of the junior teammates, Ferrari's Rubens Barrichello nor BAR's Takuma Sato, looked even remotely as competitive as the two race leaders on Sunday.

In BAR's case, the difference in driver performance is not surprising. For all his dominant junior formula performances, Sato has battled to get to grips with F1 and lacks Button's experience. While Button's improved race results and clear team leadership are welcome developments for the Englishman, Sato's relative lack of proven pedigree will cause sceptics to wonder aloud whether Button is really getting the maximum out of the machinery at his disposal. The Englishman's unruffled and smooth style often gives the impression that he isn't pushing to the limit. If that draws negative comments, Button must learn to live with it, just as Alain Prost did.

For Ferrari, Barrichello's current lack of form should not be surprising. The Brazilian has never performed that well at Imola, and the F2004 is apparently less suited to his style than previous Ferraris. In an ultra-drivable car like the F2002, which required little more than conventional brake-turn-accelerate input from the driver in order to be fast, Barrichello was able to challenge Schumacher. In a less stable car, Schumacher's superior ability to drive around shortcomings opens up a chasm between him and his junior partner.

Barrichello has the additional problem that Schumacher is currently at a formidable mental peak. The German has stated that he has nothing left to prove, and is now racing for the sheer love of it. When a driver of Schumacher's calibre is able to cast aside the contract-securing, image-building and career-developing pressures that grind away at younger rivals, it amounts to an unfair mental advantage. The ability to regulate and handle pressure is a key to success, and seemingly the only pressure that Schumacher faces nowadays is that which he places upon himself.

Yet, as 2003 suggested, Schumacher's mental comfort zone is not nearly as broad nor as secure as many would like to think. Despite his statements about driving for the love of the sport, Schumacher's true love lies not in competing but in winning. When that opportunity for personal victory is removed, as it was following his broken leg at Silverstone 1999, Schumacher showed little desire to compete. When his chances of winning are even threatened, his carefree and sunny disposition turns quickly to grim determination and angst. Which in turn results in the unforced driving errors that have occasionally marred his reputation.

In 2003, even with five WDC championships and his name atop virtually every list of F1 achievers, Schumacher showed just how much winning still meant to him, and just how pressure could still affect even the most successful F1 driver in history. Facing championship pressure from both the relentlessly consistent Kimi Raikkonen and the explosive Juan Pablo Montoya, Schumacher's confidence and form suffered to the point where Barrichello outraced him for most of the season's second half.

It's not inconceivable that Schumacher could yet be forced back into the late 2003 mindset this season. His rivals just need to chip away, and undermine his confidence by any means at their disposal. Button's superb qualifying lap on Saturday was a start, drawing a white-knuckled and near-disastrous response from Schumacher and showing that the German can still be pressured into mistakes.

Button and Montoya have to keep plugging away, accumulating whatever points they can get and maintaining whatever pressure they can. Schumacher is not going to fall off his own comfortable mental perch, his rivals will have to make their own luck just as Kimi Raikkonen did last season. It's a slim hope for the championship pretenders. But, with Schumacher in this sort of form, slim is as good as it gets.

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Volume 10, Issue 17
April 28th 2004

Atlas F1 Exclusive

The Next Privateer
by David Cameron

Bjorn Wirdheim: Going Places
by Bjorn Wirdheim

One Shot: a Tribute to Ratzenberger
by Keith Sutton

Ann Bradshaw: Point of View
by Ann Bradshaw

2004 San Marino GP Review

2004 San Marino GP Review
by Pablo Elizalde

Technical Review: San Marino
by Craig Scarborough

Reflections on Imola
by Roger Horton

Beware Racing's Black Hole
by Karl Ludvigsen

Slim Hopes
by Richard Barnes

Stats Center

Qualifying Differentials
by Marcel Borsboom

SuperStats
by David Wright

Charts Center
by Michele Lostia

Columns

Season Strokes
by Bruce Thomson

Elsewhere in Racing
by David Wright & Mark Alan Jones

The Weekly Grapevine
by Dieter Rencken



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