Autosport-Atlas Journal: The 2005 Australian GP Preview

The Australian Grand Prix is hosted at Albert Park � using a temporary circuit put together specifically for the event. Like all temporary tracks, the surface will start out green, making for a slippery start, and though it should rubber in as the weekend progresses, the new limited tyre rules will make this process slower and less complete. Traditionally, the circuit is tough on braking, and this year will require a near-maximum downforce setup.

Melbourne is going to be the first indication of the genuine capabilities of the teams after their efforts through the off season: whilst testing has revealed that some teams are capable of some excellent speed, the need to be able to run a full race distance on the same tyres has helped to mask a lot of the capabilities of the teams. It is particularly interesting to remember that the far harder tyres in use this season have been offering the best laptimes at the end of long runs � implying that the manufacturers may be more conservative than strictly necessary.

The rule changes have introduced more complications to the weekend than just limits on tyres or engines: the split qualifying session with aggregated times, one on low fuel, the other on racing fuel, will make throw an extra element into the strategy mix. Whilst it reduces transparency for the proverbial man in the pub, this improves the chances of a mistake that leads to unexpected qualifying positions, which should improve the show.

Track: Being a temporary circuit, there is a very slippery surface to start the weekend, that will pick up grip as the cars lay rubber down. Fast straights and big stop corners are costly on brakes, whilst not as hot as Malaysia, the ambient temperatures usually mean that engine cooling requirements have to be carefully considered.

Tyres: Getting the car working effectively on Melbourne's green circuit is always the first and most important challenge for the teams � and though Friday's running should give them plenty of time to get it sorted, there is no recovering from failing to estimate correctly how the track will rubber in, as doing so will leave the team on uncompetitive racing tyres: this will prove expensive in the dying laps of the race as competitors will have a considerable grip advantage.

Despite tough rivalry between Bridgestone and Michelin in the tyre war, both companies are expected to produce tyres with similar characteristics � with a considerable impact to performance coming from the way a team uses their tyres influencing the choice required to make a decent fist of the race.

Weather: Prediction is for a cloudy weekend with showers on Saturday. This could interfere with set-up time � benefiting those with 2004 cars, as they are better understood � or qualifying, which would emphasise this session far more significant than the Sunday morning 'race fuelled' qualifying: drivers caught out in the rain would be unable to make up the lost time, so be more inclined to start the race on higher fuel loads.

Strategy: Qualifying well is important on a circuit that does not promote overtaking; this promotes starting on a lower fuel load, which is coincidentally easier on the brakes and tyres. However, with no new-tyre benefit to come from pitstops, gains are reduced, so teams can generally be expected to make the same or fewer stops than last season: smooth drivers who can look after their tyres are more likely to risk a higher fuel load to save the time of a stop. As at most races this season, a shorter first stint to improve qualifying pace is almost certainly the order of the day, and then the majority of teams should have a single further stop shortly after the mid-point of the remaining laps.

Three stops is still a competitive option for teams marginal on brakes or tyre wear, but one stop is unlikely to be beneficial as the qualifying penalty would be high. It is worth noting that differing strategies will promote on-track passes, as cars with higher fuel loads will have to work hard to keep those with less fuel on board behind�

Surprises: If the new Cosworth engine is half as good as Red Bull believe it to be, then by placing Coulthard at the helm, qualifying bugbear notwithstanding, they could have a car well up the qualifying grid, and potentially finishing strongly in the points. Minardi are saying they will turn up with their 2004 specification cars, so they are widely expected to be excluded, then play political and legal games: this is considerably cheaper than paying the no-show fee.

Conclusions: Based on their pace in winter testing, Renault and McLaren look set to fight for the race win, though Ferrari cannot be discounted, despite racing their old car. All three teams could finish on the podium. Further back, that pace of BAR is picking up, though there are question marks over their engines lasting two races, and Williams are hungry: these teams are looking to get two cars in the points. A good weekend for Coulthard should see a Red Bull running strongly, whilst the Saubers should show the remainder of the midfield how to play the game.

Despite a convincing season in 2004, Ferrari are heading to Melbourne with last year's car. This was beaten in Brazil by Williams, and has not shown the best of form through the off season.

Package: arguably, Ferrari have the most complete package - the car itself may be a little off the pace, but they have excellent strategists and drivers. Being a known quantity, getting dialled in to the circuit should be a relatively quick matter, so more time can be spent fine tuning for qualifying and the race. Accordingly, despite knowing that McLaren and Renault seem to have some advantage, the team are still looking for a podium finish in Australia.

Drivers: Michael Schumacher is widely expected to benefit from the requirement for tyres to last a race distance - always the consummate professional, he is widely respected for being able to stay on top of the tactical requirements from the race, has tremendous experience, and can change the style in which he drives the car in order to maximise preservation or speed. Despite being in the shadow of Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello is no slough either; the Brazilian is very fast, and has nearly the experience of his team leader. This pairing is a formidable part of the Ferrari armoury.

After the distractions of the off-season, BAR must be glad to be heading to Australia and looking forward to putting their season in order. The upheaval of a change of management, combined with the nonsense over Button's future, cannot have helped with getting the new car together, so it is little surprise that in testing, they have been a little off the pace.

Package: although the new car has question marks over its reliability, this is mostly related to the longevity of the engine, so Australia is not the place it is most likely to show up; nevertheless, the team will be emphasising protecting the engine as well as the tyres in this race, so even if the revised aero package allows the team to qualify strongly, their strategy can be expected to limit continued stress to the engine. Otherwise, this car is capable of a decent turn of speed, and should be capable of scoring points.

Drivers: Takuma Sato is very quick, and a year at BAR has seen him visibly mature as a racing driver; his fearless approach to racing now slightly tempered, reducing the number of off track excursions. The reduced downforce of the new car combined with the slippery surface at Australia will not stop him being very fast, but will likely increase his off-track excursions over the weekend. Meanwhile, after the Williams fiasco, Jenson Button has committed himself to making the most of another season at BAR. The British driver is widely respected for his smoothness, so he is expected to flourish under the new rules � and can probably be expected to finish more races than his teammate whilst Honda's engines are marginal on longevity. Like the team, this driver is gunning for a first win, but a realistic best hope for the weekend is a podium finish.

Still smarting from losing out to BAR for second place in the Championship last year, the team have been working hard to produce a car that can challenge this year. After the rollout and testing went smoothly, there is little doubt that the outfit are well placed for the new year, and they head to Australia with high hopes.

Package: on a circuit that rewards a balanced package with efficient aerodynamics, there is every reason to believe that Melbourne is going to suit Renault. Better still, the longer it remains slippery and difficult to dial the cars in for, the better they benefit from the excellent balance. Traditionally, this is a team who use tyres very well, so they could either opt for fewer stops than other front runners, or look towards the end of the race for their efforts to pay best dividends.

Drivers: Fernando Alonso and Giancarlo Fisichella are both quick and experienced. Whilst Alonso has been with the team for a while, chosen first over Jenson Button then Jarno Trulli, there are some question marks over his speed. Undoubtedly, the talent is there, but at the start of last season, Trulli was convincingly faster. Fisichella, meanwhile, has earned a return to Renault as they look to run at the top as a consequence of outstanding efforts at Jordan and Sauber. Although often overlooked, the Italian has frequently put in races that demonstrate his ability to get the most out of a car over the full race distance. This could be a vital aspect in Renault; whilst he is still re-integrating, Alonso could have an edge, but this should be a very strong driver pairing � but don't be surprised to see them on differing strategies!

Although there were high hope for Williams again this season, they arrive in Melbourne already conceding that a race win would be unexpected � indeed, they see McLaren and Renault as the in form outfits, so racing BAR and Ferrari for the remaining points is the order of the day.

Package: after rolling out the new car, it was rapidly apparent that the downforce characteristics were not up to scratch: discrepancies between two wind tunnels had led to misleading figures. Whilst not the ideal start to the season, it is not an irrecoverable position to be in, but it takes time for the revised parts to come through the pipeline. In the meanwhile, the package has a solid engine, and an excellent chassis offering plenty of mechanical grip, but not quite the aero package to get to the front. As a further downside, poor weather combined with a focus on isolating the aero problems means that reliability could be suspect�

Drivers: a season of spectacular qualifying sessions did much for Mark Webber's reputation � comprehensively beating his teammates has done little harm either. However, since Jaguar (Red Bull) dropped the ball and he has jumped to Williams, this is a time of reckoning. Teammate Nick Heidfeld is going to do little to help: whilst overlooked by McLaren, those who have worked with the German say he is not only quick, but exceptionally talented when it comes to pinpointing ways to improve the car. This is an interesting line-up that could reap big dividends over the season, though neither has hopes of winning this race.

Compared to last season, there is very little similar about the lead up to Australia for McLaren. They have been quick in testing, and are widely recognised for the strength of their driver line-up. With Ferrari running their old car and heading to a circuit that in principle also suits Renault, they look capable of fighting for a win.

Package: this car shows considerable attention to detail, and has been both quick and reasonably reliable in testing. It might be a measure of a return to the McLaren approach of old (quick, then reliable) but there is no doubt that this is a very solid package that should challenge at the front. If there is a perceived weakness, it is that the engine is not the class of the field for power, but if this is a compromise for smoothness and reduced tyre wear, then it is probably not a huge handicap.

Drivers: with four seasons at the team, Kimi Raikkonen is comfortable with the car, the mechanics and the way they work. His icy temperament, blended with talent, reveals a driver who is simply waiting for the package that can deliver wins; on the other hand, his detractors will say that when off the pace, he is as likely to go to sleep as get on with the race. In contrast, Montoya is not known for sitting back: despite this being his first season with the team, all indications are that his integration has been very rapid, so he could be almost right up to speed from the outset. However, if he can't control his passion for speed in order to preserve tyres, then the end of the race is going to be particularly interesting!

One of the advantages of running the same engine as Ferrari is that Sauber know they are working with a solid, Championship quality engine � so they can play the customer game by putting their time and attention into the rest of the platform. As they have in recent seasons, the team are looking set to lead the midfield. The car has not had the pre-season mileage the team were looking for, but they are heading to Australia in optimistic mood.

Package: despite a lack of testing, in part due to problems with the weather, but also from reliability keeping down the mileage when the cars were out, it has been difficult getting to grips with the capabilities of the car. In principle, it seems capable of running out quick laptimes, but whether the full race distance is manageable, or the performance will drop off significantly, is going to be a big question mark.

Drivers: Felipe Massa is undoubtedly a quick driver, and though erratic is considerably better at bringing the car to the line now he has two seasons in him; facing up to Villeneuve could be precisely the prod needed to raise his game bringing '97 World Champion Jacques Villeneuve on board has raised a lot of question marks � particularly over the Canadian's lacklustre performance standing in for Trulli in Renault last season, and his testing performance has done little to change opinions; however, if Villeneuve has sorted out both his fitness and his hunger, then he should come together for this weekend.

Despite the name change, this team are still basically the outfit that failed to give Mark Webber a car that would perform last season. However, despite there being little reason to look for an improvement based on the people in charge, there is a buzz about the camp that they could at least flatter in Melbourne, even if the remainder of the season is a trial.

The new money coming into the team have not been particularly influential in the development of the new car to date � it arrived too late to impact the major design decisions � but the team have been able to get in plenty of testing. Add the experience of David Coulthard to improve the chassis, and the reinvigorated efforts of a post-Ford Cosworth, and this is really not the same equation that produced last year's car: one that was able to qualify in the top six for the season opener.

Package: in the last couple of seasons, in the guise of Jaguar, the team started with some promise in qualifying before struggling to maintain performance over the race distance. Amid assurances that the issues with tyre wear have been sorted and news of a new, more powerful engine, it would be little surprise to learn that they greater horsepower simply contributes to greater rear tyre wear. All the same, this is the team that many of the drivers are saying to watch for, as they might just have made a big jump through the off season.

Drivers: the pairing of David Coulthard and Christian Klien are not the strongest line-up on the grid: whilst the ex-McLaren man is quick and known for his technical feedback, he struggles with the qualifying format, Klien rarely impressed last season, and the general perception that he is a standard pay driver is going to be hard to shake off. But Coulthard is at least a solid, reliable racer; if he can keep it together in qualifying to leverage the most of the new Cosworth engine then the team have high hopes of picking up a point.

Objectives: get to grips with the new car, qualify in the top ten, score a point.

Despite a rather subdued showing in testing, there are a few pundits expecting this outfit to make considerable inroads as the season wears on. Their new car is believed to be a considerable improvement on its predecessor, whilst a fully revised aerodynamic package should be on the car for Friday testing. If this package offers the advance the team have implied, they will be mixing with the likes of BAR and Williams.

Package: In all likelihood, however, the team are going to struggle at this circuit. The low grip track will not help them understand the revised downforce settings required, so much time could be lost setting the car up efficiently. This is not conducive to producing the best preparation for both the race and the qualifying session; and if there are compromises, then it bodes ill for their chances of impressing.

Drivers: Jarno Trulli and Ralf Schumacher are both starting the season with points to prove, and each has demonstrated they can be quick. However, there is little they will be able to do if the aero package doesn't deliver, as the car will be quite a long way off the pace. On the positive side, they have excellent experience, so even with work on testing the new aero package, they should be able to get the best out of the car.

The revised Jordan is basically a reworking of the 2004 car, with modifications to take a Toyota engine in place of the Ford predecessor. This inevitably requires some compromises, but the team are still hoping that Australia can be a positive event. They have not been able to test as much as their opponents � budget restraints before the takeover prohibited this � and the results of good investment will take some time to come through. Whilst this will make the race a difficult proposition, Grand Prix mileage is vital both to improve understanding of this revised format, and to give their inexperienced drivers a chance to perform when they have a more competitive car later in the year.

Package: one positive side of running a car that has some semblance to its predecessor is that the team have some understanding of the way it works and how to set it up. However, now that they have to get a full race distance out of the tyres, the team are expected to be struggling for grip and braking by the end of the race.

Drivers: neither Karthikeyan nor Monteiro have any experience of this formula, so they clearly are being dropped right into the deep end. Expectations in Melbourne must be low as even if the equipment was good for midfield running, the level of competition would hand them a very rude awakening. Both drivers have shown potential at other levels � Karthikeyan in particular having impressed regularly � but this outing is all about staying on the track and getting in the miles.

Objectives: make a showing, preferably not just propping up the grid, but mainly getting the miles for the car and drivers.

Without being able to get a new car together for the season opener, there is a very real expectation for the team to find themselves excluded from the event for failing to present a car that complies with the regulations. Whilst this is financially expedient � it prevents the team being fined their appearance money � it is certainly going to be controversial, as letting them put a non-conforming car on the track would set a dangerous precedent.

Although the FIA attempted to shake up the old order by introducing engine longevity rules and revamping the qualifying format, the changes made little difference to Ferrari, who clearly demonstrated they not only fully understood the impact of the changes, but their year old car was still the one to beat. Behind them, Renault looked solid whilst BAR showed they were not dissembling with their winter testing pace. McLaren's hopes were far from realised, and Williams were demonstrably off the championship winning pace that had widely been predicted for them.

Clearly the team to beat, there was limited surprise that Ferrari filled the front row, Schumacher leading the way narrowly over Barrichello. Montoya recovered from Williams terrible Friday showing with third spot, whilst Button's fourth was a second from pole, but confirmed BAR were going to be there for the year. Alonso looked good in fifth for Renault, whilst Webber looked comfortable in sixth for Jaguar.

Notables included Ralf Schumacher's surprising and unexplained lack of pace, and Raikkonen looked disappointing in tenth. Felipe Massa, on his first single lap qualifying, outpaced his respected team-mate Fisichella at Sauber.

The race day dawned considerably cooler than anyone predicted, playing towards the traditional strength of Bridgestone. However, at the start line, all eyes were on the grid to see what the impact of eliminating launch control would be � and it seems that Renault were just as effective as ever, with Alonso driving around Montoya into the first corner; the Williams driver responded by braking too late, running wide, and dropping to seventh. The Ferrari's ran away in formation, with Alonso and Button chasing. Trulli and the Williams duo kept station behind.

Montoya pestered Trulli, but despite apparently greater speed was not able to make much impression; meanwhile, Fisichella pitted on lap nine, whilst Massa showed up McLaren's lack of pace by taking Raikkonen with a clean first corner pass� though the Finn's engine seized moments later, ending his race.

The first round of stops saw little change, except Ralf passing Montoya and Trulli for fifth. It took the Columbian a further dozen laps to pass Trulli: he immediately pulled out two seconds per lap before pitting, only to have a problem with the right rear car� he was fortunate to stay ahead of the Renault.

The second set of stops was uneventful, though it brought Montoya up on Button's tail. He eventually passed on lap 38 by pressuring the Briton into a mistake that took him off the circuit.

The last round of stops was also uneventful, except for a braking problem seeing Heidfeld run down a couple of the Jordan mechanics, before retiring on exiting the pits.

In the event, it was a comfortable win for Schumacher, Barrichello easily second, whilst Alonso ran a lonely race for third.

Pos Driver Team-Engine Time
1. M.Schumacher Ferrari (B)
2. Barrichello Ferrari (B)
3. Alonso Renault (M)
4. R.Schumacher Williams-BMW (M)
5. Montoya Williams-BMW (M)
6. Button BAR-Honda (M)
7. Trulli Renault (M)
8. Coulthard McLaren-Mercedes (M)

Fastest Lap: M.Schumacher, 1:24.125, lap 29

Classified: 14 from 20 starters

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