ATLAS F1 - THE JOURNAL OF FORMULA ONE MOTORSPORT
The Weekly Grapevine

By Tom Keeble, England
Atlas F1 Columnist




* Honda Pushing the Boundaries

When an engine supplier like Honda lose five engines over a Grand Prix weekend - two of them, critically, during the race - it is statement to the world that they are pushing right to the ragged edge in the quest for performance.

Olivier PanisSpa is not an easy circuit on engines; the cars spend considerable time on full throttle, and the high-speed corners only add to internal stresses, as centrifugal and coriolis forces influence the way fuel, lubricant and coolant moves through the unit. Traditionally, if an engine is marginal on reliability, this is one of the places where it should be detuned for the race, as the odds on a grenade impression are considerably greater.

Of course, when the difference between teams is only measurable in thousandths of a second, taking a couple of hundred revs off the top end is all too likely to be the decisive factor between holding or losing a place at the end of a straight. Teams can compensate for reduced engine power by taking off some wing, but that results in overall lap times being compromised, so places will be lost in pit-stops. Adding to the frustration, reducing wing increases braking distances and makes the car slower through corners - so anyone who gets close leading on to the straight and can live with the car has a viable chance of an outbraking manoeuvre.

There have been few bright moments in Honda's return to the top level. Expectations have not been met, and the engine has never really been competitive enough to drive at the front - though it was never going to be easy: Formula One has evolved a long way since the Honda's previous involvement at the start of the decade!

Honda's position over the Spa weekend was far from enviable. At the front of the pack, Ferrari and BMW are considered the best motors to have, whilst Mercedes and Toyota are generally acknowledged to be pretty handy. Ford's reputation remains undimmed, despite the underwhelming Jaguar performances. Renault, having spent a year struggling to get their act together, is definitely on the move, and continues closing the gap to the leaders. Asiatech are sort of a standing joke in the paddock - they can't even give away their engines for next year at the moment - leaving Honda looking like the least competitive "real" engine manufacturer on the grid.

Attempts to change that impression, before Honda's sporting reputation is tarnished, are proving tough. The development programme is aggressive, with targets that, had they been met, should have brought the engine into line with the top engines by the middle of the season. Instead, they are still around 50 bhp off the mark, and offering nothing special in terms of mass distribution or fuel consumption. And the advent of traction control renders the ultra-smooth power curve that Honda engines have a reputation for almost completely irrelevant.

The latest evolution of this engine includes components that have been made with a refined production process. This has allowed tolerances to be tightened, a reduction of the mass of the moving elements, reduced internal friction and perhaps an extra 20 bhp to play with - a considerable step forward. That said, the engine was supposed to be nearly as reliable as its previous incarnation, at least in race trim, so losing two in the main event was unexpected.

What's left of the broken engines has already been dismantled, and an initial analysis completed - and the results may even be an accurate picture of the order in which things went wrong - but it doesn't address Honda's concerns that testing didn't show up the weakness in the engine beforehand. The hours of computer simulation, dynamometer and on-track testing predicted the expectation of failure at less than four percent over a race distance. From there, simple probability theory implied a one in seven chance that Honda would lose one of the four engines in the race, and less than one in one hundred that two would fail.

The weekend demonstrated that either Honda were fundamentally unlucky, or that the testing process missed something. Early indications are that the changes to Hockenheim have played a part - telemetry from those testing straights used to be compared against the dyno simulation to confirm accuracy. Similarly, the changes at Spa have made the circuit quicker: some of the fast corners are 20 km/h faster than last year, and it is possible that the engine lubrication was affected.

With Monza, Indianapolis and - to a lesser degree - Japan looming, the race is on to ensure the missing factor is isolated in a hurry.


* Searching for Silver Linings

Taking advantage of dominating the Formula One scene, Ferrari's public relations people are making the most of the change to strengthen the company's profile. It won't make much difference to sales, as the company produces a fixed number of cars every year, and there's no danger of a shortage of buyers in bad times, let alone good. But raising the image justifies the asking price of a new Ferrari, and any future rises.

The McLaren motorhomeHowever, with Ferrari sitting in the limelight, marketing departments up and down the pitlane are having to get inventive in their search for positive things to take from the sport, and are coming under increasing pressure to do so as the world economy continues to be depressed.

BMW have more to celebrate than most. They can already point to this season as 'the most successful so far' as the team have passed last year's total of 80 points, and can realistically target triple figures. Putting it into perspective, though the season looks like a Ferrari benefit, the last time Williams scored better than this was when Jacques Villeneuve took the Championship in 1997!

Mercedes and McLaren have not been missing too many tricks either. When things were slow on track, they unveiled the new communication centre. Though criticised by some as a waste of resources that should have gone into developing the car, has been a demonstrable hit in the paddock and with the press. Since then, the cars have been more prominent, and the PR machine has made the most of it, though Ron Dennis makes no bones that the target is a return to the number one spot.

Further back, Renault's forward progress has slowed, so the focus is 'next year'. Ford's marketing department has demonstrated that the Formula One presence had a positive impact on Jaguar sales, but the current climate is not helping matters. Empirical evidence shows that the team need to at least threaten to become competitive if maintaining the presence is worthwhile, so the point from Spa is just what the doctor ordered.

Sponsors withdrawing and cutting budgets has ensured that the price of real estate on cars has plummeted. The cost of going racing has not come down, and most teams have significant budget shortfall for next season. Some teams compromise - Minardi's drivers will need to bring at least $5 million of sponsorship apiece next year; even the test role comes with a $2 million tag - and all will get more and more creative through the off season.

On the positive side, at least it means there will be some highlights during off season testing, as midfield teams suddenly manage to post 'competitive' times on 'experimental tyres.'


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Volume 8, Issue 36
September 4th 2002

Articles

Schumacher's Living Room
by Will Gray

Pummeled by Perfection
by Thomas O'Keefe

Ann Bradshaw: View from the Paddock
by Ann Bradshaw

Belgian GP Review

The 2002 Belgian GP Review
by Pablo Elizalde

Technical Review: Belgian GP
by Craig Scarborough

Rude Awakening
by Richard Barnes

The Best of Williams
by Karl Ludvigsen

Stats Center

Qualifying Differentials
by Marcel Borsboom

SuperStats
by David Wright

Charts Center
by Michele Lostia

Columns

Season Strokes
by Bruce Thomson

Elsewhere in Racing
by David Wright & Mark Alan Jones

The Grapevine
by Tom Keeble



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